Goldsboro, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

712
FXUS62 KRAH 261046
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
646 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 225 PM Thursday...

* Slight upward adjustment for highs on Friday and low
  temperatures on Sunday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 225 AM Thursday...

1) A very warm Friday with record threatening highs will give
way to a significant temperature drop Friday night into Saturday
as a strong cold front moves through the area. The front will
bring a good chance of at least a little bit of rain to the area
Friday afternoon into the evening with rainfall amounts
averaging around a quarter of an inch or less.

2) Adverse fire weather conditions possible Friday and again on
Saturday.

3) Low temperatures on Sunday morning will range between 30 and
35 in many locations resulting in widespread frost/freeze
conditions with the potential for multiple hours of temperatures
below freezing.

4) Dry weather is expected to return for the weekend through at
least mid week resulting in a prolonged period of below average
precipitation exasperating drought conditions and sustaining or
prolonging the abundance of pollen in the air.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 225 AM Thursday...


KEY MESSAGE 1... A very warm Friday with record threatening highs
will give way to a significant temperature drop Friday night into
Saturday as a strong cold front moves through the area. The front
will bring a good chance of at least a little bit of rain to the
area Friday afternoon into the evening with rainfall amounts
averaging around a quarter of an inch or less.

Guidance continues to remain in good agreement with the overall
weather pattern and features this weekend into early next week. A
fast mainly westerly flow across the eastern U.S. with the strongest
westerlies across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Friday morning
will evolve into a modest transient trough that moves off the New
England Coast late Friday. On Friday morning an east to west
oriented cold front will stretch from southern NJ west to near
Washington DC to central KY. Given the orientation of the front, the
shallow airmass, and the flow atop it, the boundary appears likely
to buckle with the boundary apt to surge south east of the Mountains
across VA Friday morning and into northern NC during the late
afternoon while the progression south across the Mountains is
delayed. A weak surface wave may develop in the VA/NC Piedmont
during the afternoon and evening as the frontal zone shifts southeast
reaching the coast around/just after midnight. Forcing for ascent is
modest but combined with PW values 150% of normal should be
sufficient for the development of showers near and behind the
leading frontal zone.

Ahead of the front, an unseasonably warm airmass will result in
highs in the mid 80s to around 90 with the exception of some lower
80s adjacent to the VA border. These highs are generally 20+ degrees
above average and will likely threaten record high temperatures at
all of our climate sites (see climate section below). The warm
temperatures and dewpoints in the upper 50s to around 60 will result
in some weak surface instability ahead of the front along with some
weak elevated instability that will linger into the evening hours
behind the front. We should be precipitation free through mid
afternoon Friday with a band of showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms shifting southeast across the area during the late
afternoon and early evening. While your phone app may suggest rainy
weather on Friday and Saturday most locations will only see a 2-4
window of possible rain that should end areawide just after
midnight. The greatest precipitation coverage should be near the VA
border and near Roanoke Rapids where amounts will average around a
third of an inch. Amounts and coverage will decrease to southwest
and west with amounts around or less than a quarter of an inch in
the Triangle and Triad with much lower rain chances and perhaps a
tenth of an inch at most across the Southern Piedmont and Sandhills.
Storm intensity should be limited due to the modest instability.
Highs on Saturday should be 30 degrees or so cooler than Friday and
range in the upper 50s to around 60.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Adverse fire weather conditions possible Friday and
again on Saturday.

Despite marginal meteorological parameters on Friday, daily record
warmth, a marginally dry air mass, seasonably breezy southwest
winds, and bordering historic dryness within 100hr- fuels may allow
for fire behavior to become hazardous. Saturday will feature a
typically unfavorable northeast wind for fire weather concerns
but gusty winds and widespread minimum RAH values less than 25%
and possibly as low as the teens in the western PIedmont will
likely enhance fire weather concerns.


KEY MESSAGE 3... Low temperatures on Sunday morning will range
between 30 and 35 in many locations resulting in widespread
frost/freeze conditions with the potential for multiple hours of
temperatures below freezing.

A chilly 1037mb Canadian high pressure system will shift southeast
into our region and setup across NC and VA around daybreak Sunday
morning. Low level thickness values will modify from Saturday and
range between 1305 to 1315m on Sunday morning thanks to warming in
the top of the layer but with the surface high overhead, favorable
radiational cooling conditions will result in chilly temperatures.
We adjusted lows downward a bit into the 30 to 35 range with some
lows in the upper 20s in the rural and typically colder locations.
These temperatures would be especially hazardous to any early
budding plants/vegetation that are sensitive to the cold. The
Frost/Freeze program for central NC will begin the morning of April
1st at which time we will resume the issuance of Frost Advisories,
Freeze Watches/Warnings. Until then, will continue to highlight this
risk in the HWO and gridded weather forecast.


KEY MESSAGE 4... Dry weather is expected to return for the weekend
through at least mid week resulting in a prolonged period of below
average precipitation exasperating drought conditions and sustaining
or prolonging the abundance of pollen in the air.

Dry weather is expected for the weekend through at least mid week
with the next chance of rain arriving late in the work week and
especially toward the weekend. This will likely mean the only
measurable rain from March 17th through April 1st will be the
limited QPF event on Friday.


&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 645 AM Thursday...

Although VFR conditions are likely through tonight, patches (mostly
a scattering) of stratocumulus will be based as low as 2500-3500 ft
AGL this morning. Swly surface winds will strengthen and become
gusty into the teens to around 20 kts with late morning through
afternoon heating. A strong low-level jet will develop in the lee of
the Appalachians and ahead of an approaching cold front tonight,
with an associated high probability of low-level wind shear
throughout cntl NC.

Outlook: A cold front will be accompanied by scattered showers/
isolated storms Fri evening and following/post-frontal MVFR ceilings
and stratiform rain Fri night. Nly to nely surface winds behind the
front will also become quite strong and gusty up to 25-35 kts Fri
night, strongest in the few hours following the passage of the cold
front, as a much colder airmass surges across cntl NC.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

March 27:
KGSO: 86/1921
KRDU: 87/2007
KFAY: 87/1946


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 27:
KGSO: 60/2007
KRDU: 65/1949
KFAY: 65/1949

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blaes/Swiggett
AVIATION...MWS